Posted tagged ‘Market Studies’

Housing Report Bucks Conventional Wisdom

August 4, 2014

house-mazeThis report is more of a statement that things are going to progress at about the same rate as current growth. The idea that this forecast is based on “real time” is somewhat misleading as it is using data showing “demand for housing is down” is based on figures March 2014 and the amount of cash purchases data is from December 2013. This is hardy real time data and more. It seems that the writer is using any data that strengthens his contentions. For a more detailed look at this subject – please read the article below.

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Conventional wisdom seems to suggest that recent housing data points to reasons for analysts to worry about the direction of the economy. A new report makes the case that the picture is much brighter than their consensus would lead one to think.

“It’s scary to be a contrarian, particularly if you’re contrarian and bullish. In retrospect, this position is the most fun— if you’re right,” said Michael Simonsen, co-founder and CEO of Altos Research.

Recently, his group published its 2015 Housing Report. Based on real-time observations of housing supply and demand, among other conclusions, the report is forecasting a 7 percent home price increase for 2015.

In terms of home prices, the U.S. real estate market hit the absolute bottom on January 4, 2011, according to the report. Since then, home prices are 39 percent higher.

“Yet every day we see media headlines declaring weakness and disappointment. As recently as June 2015, housing apparently remains a chief concern for Fed chief Janet Yellen, who uses phrases like much slower pace than expected and slowdown,” Simonsen said.

These attitudes reflect a myopic view of actual market conditions and conflate concerns over the mortgage industry, the otherwise-constrained new construction market, and, more broadly, the long-term financial stability of the U.S. consumer with specific current housing market supply and demand dynamics, according to Simonsen.

To read the complete article – please use the link below.

Housing Report

Default Falls to Historically Low Levels in Large Metros

July 18, 2014

loan-defaultThis is a very good sign for the housing market as it indicates that homeowners  have the means and desire to pay their bills. For a more detailed look at this subject – please read the article below.

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As the unemployment rate and other economic measures continue to improve, American consumers appear to be gaining a greater ability to meet their credit obligations.

A report released Tuesday by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian showed a decline in default rates among five of the largest cities in the nation to historically low levels.

The national composite for all types of credit default posted 1.02% in June, its lowest reading since the organization began collecting the data ten years ago.

Consistent with recent reports that payment priorities may be shifting among Americans back to pre-downturn norms, mortgages lead the way with first mortgages clocking in at just 0.89 percent default. The default rate at second mortgages was even lower at 0.57 percent.

“Consumer credit default rates continue to drift lower and have reached a historical low,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“Recent economic reports are encouraging with the unemployment rate now at a six year low and strong job creation in recent months. The continued declines in consumer default rates confirm other indicators of an improving economy. Credit standards for mortgage loans continue to be somewhat restrictive and may be contributing to low first mortgage default rates”.

To read the complete article – please use the link below.

Default Falls to Historically Low

RealtyTrac Releases Occupied REO Report

October 6, 2013

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This is good news regarding the housing market. It is transiting from a investor driven market to a market that is determined by the normal buyer that is a homeowner. Please read the article below.

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The housing market is transitioning away from a rebound driven primarily by speculative forces to one where the underlying fundamentals will be much more important according to RealtyTrac.

Over the past several years investor purchases have been the primary driver of the housing recovery, helping clear inventories of foreclosed and lender-owned properties and raising home prices. Home prices, which tumbled 33.7 percent from peak to trough using the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, have since rebounded 16.3 percent and are up 12.4 percent over the past year alone. The swing in prices exaggerates the extent of improvement and likely reflects the whipsaw effect of prices overshooting to the downside during the worst of the housing bust.

To read the complete article please use the link below.

Occupied REO Report

Private Mortgage Insurers Increase Business Activity in July

September 3, 2013

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This is not a big enough increase to get real excited about but it is the start of a good trend. Please read the article below and let me know what you think.

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Private mortgage insurers reported a slight increase in activity in July. According to data released by Mortgage Insurance Companies of America (MICA), member companies issued 50,575 policies to start the year’s second half, up from 49,666 in June and 39,192 in July 2012.

Dollar volume of primary new insurance written totaled $13.0 billion, marking the fifth straight month of gains. (Despite a decline in policies issued in June, dollar volume still saw an increase to $12.3 billion).

Total primary insurance in force was $413.0 billion as of the end of July, the companies reported.

After falling in June, the number of private mortgage insurance applications ticked up in July, climbing to 53,502—indicating another potential increase in activity in the near future.

Meanwhile, MICA members reported 21,930 defaults and 17,156 cures in July, bringing the cure-to-default ratio down to 78.2 percent—its lowest level since last September.

Statistics came from Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation, Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation, and Radian Guaranty Inc.

To see the original article – please use the link below.

Private Mortgage Insurers

Exec Advises Laid-Off Loan Officers to Look to Specialty Servicing

August 29, 2013

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This seems to be very good advice for any loan officers who have lost their jobs. Please read the article below and let me know what you think.

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As mortgage rates climb and the refinance boom comes to a close, the origination sector is in flux.

Last week, mortgage applications declined 8 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Application Survey, while the average interest rate for a fixed-rate, 30-year mortgage rose from 4.56 percent to 4.68 percent.

Also evidence of declining refinance volumes, Ellie Mae reported last month that purchase originations outpaced refinances for the first time since Ellie Mae began recording origination data about two years ago.

With declining volumes, the industry cannot support the number of loan officers it has had on staff of late, and many originations shops are shedding employees. Wells Fargo, for example, is reportedly cutting 2,300 production jobs.

However, this glum news may have a silver lining, according to at least one industry executive.

“There’s a huge opportunity for former loan originators taking their existing skill set and industry knowledge and applying them in specialty servicing,” Patrick Norton, SVP of Fay Servicing, based in Chicago, told DS News.

“There’s enormous opportunity, and I don’t think it’s going to fade away in the near future,” Norton said.

To see the complete article – please use the link below.

Laid-Off Loan Officers

OCC: 90% of Mortgages Current in Q1 as Foreclosure Efforts Continue

June 30, 2013

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This is probably because most of the bad loans have already be through the foreclosure process and many of them are on their second time around. Please read the article below and let me know what you think.

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Mortgage performance improved in the first quarter of this year, with 90.2 percent of mortgages current and performing, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported Thursday.

The share is up from 89.4 percent in the previous quarter and 88.9 percent a year ago. The OCC’s report represents 55 percent of all mortgages and is based on data from seven national banks and a federal savings association with the largest mortgage-servicing portfolios.

For the most part, delinquencies and foreclosures were down across the board, with the exception of early delinquencies and newly initiated foreclosures.

The OCC found the percentage of loans 30 to 59 days past due showed a slight increase year-over-year after ending at 2.6 percent, up by 3 percent from a year ago, but still down by 9.3 percent compared to the previous quarter.

Loans past due by 60 to 89 days fell to 0.9 percent, down quarterly and yearly by 16.7 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. Serious delinquencies (90 days or more past due) averaged 2.1 percent, down 7.5 percent from the previous quarter and 13.6 percent from last year.

Furthermore, the number of loans in foreclosure fell to 907,231, down 28.6 percent from a year ago and down by 1.9 percent from the previous quarter.

During the first quarter, servicers covered in the report foreclosed on 84,972 properties, down by 19.7 percent from the end of last year and down by 30.9 percent from a year ago.

As for foreclosure prevention solutions, servicers were able to complete 43,137 short sales in the first quarter, down 30.2 percent from a year ago, while deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure increased by 151.8 percent to 3,595 during the same time period.

Despite a near 14 percent quarterly increase in newly initiated foreclosures, home retention actions far outpaced new foreclosures in the first quarter.

During the first three months of this year, the OCC reported servicers implemented 348,733 home retention actions, which include loan modifications, trial-period plans, and payment plans, compared to 178,356, newly initiated foreclosures.

To read the complete article – please use the link below.

Mortgages Current in Q1

Consumer Confidence Held Back by Payroll Tax Hike

February 5, 2013

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Consumer confidence picked up somewhat in January, but the recent payroll tax hike put a ceiling on any major gains, according to the latest survey of consumers from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan (UMich).

The Index of Consumer Sentiment climbed slightly to 73.8 in January from December’s 72.9. The index read 75.0 in January 2012.

Meanwhile, the two components of the index moved in opposite directions: The Expectations Index posted a gain to 66.6 in January from 63.8 in December, while the Current Conditions Index declined to 85.0 in January from 87.0 in December.

According to a release accompanying the survey, January’s potential gains were dulled by the payroll tax increase, which has had a significant impact on lower income households; most of January’s improvement in confidence actually came from households with incomes above $75,000.

“The personal finances of consumers has weakened considerably compared with the closing months of 2012,” Thomson Reuters/U Mich said. “The January decline was due to households with incomes below $75,000 reporting more frequent losses than could be offset by upper income households.”

According to the survey, 13 percent of lower income households reported gains in disposable income in January (down from 21 percent in December) compared to 38 percent of upper income households (up from 25 percent).

To read the complete article please use the link below.

Confidence Held Back