Housing Report Bucks Conventional Wisdom

house-mazeThis report is more of a statement that things are going to progress at about the same rate as current growth. The idea that this forecast is based on “real time” is somewhat misleading as it is using data showing “demand for housing is down” is based on figures March 2014 and the amount of cash purchases data is from December 2013. This is hardy real time data and more. It seems that the writer is using any data that strengthens his contentions. For a more detailed look at this subject – please read the article below.

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Conventional wisdom seems to suggest that recent housing data points to reasons for analysts to worry about the direction of the economy. A new report makes the case that the picture is much brighter than their consensus would lead one to think.

“It’s scary to be a contrarian, particularly if you’re contrarian and bullish. In retrospect, this position is the most fun— if you’re right,” said Michael Simonsen, co-founder and CEO of Altos Research.

Recently, his group published its 2015 Housing Report. Based on real-time observations of housing supply and demand, among other conclusions, the report is forecasting a 7 percent home price increase for 2015.

In terms of home prices, the U.S. real estate market hit the absolute bottom on January 4, 2011, according to the report. Since then, home prices are 39 percent higher.

“Yet every day we see media headlines declaring weakness and disappointment. As recently as June 2015, housing apparently remains a chief concern for Fed chief Janet Yellen, who uses phrases like much slower pace than expected and slowdown,” Simonsen said.

These attitudes reflect a myopic view of actual market conditions and conflate concerns over the mortgage industry, the otherwise-constrained new construction market, and, more broadly, the long-term financial stability of the U.S. consumer with specific current housing market supply and demand dynamics, according to Simonsen.

To read the complete article – please use the link below.

Housing Report

Explore posts in the same categories: Real Estate Market Trends

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